NEW MODEL FOR BASEBALL SEASON SIMULATION

While many computer and statistical models are used to simulate season schedules, one of the draw backs of those simulations is the fact that fans cannot really watch or participate in the same way.

As we all sit at home through this COVID-19 crisis, many sports fans would love to have the distraction of watching games that were part of an actual season of competition. So, in the spirit of fun and enjoy the progress of a season, let us unveil the plan:

1. The regularly scheduled MLB season would be played according to the existing schedule.
2. No new physical games would be played, in the interests of social distancing and safety.
   • Yes, we understand that everyone would prefer games and I do believe all professional leagues will try to reinstate competition without fans. Unfortunately, I also believe that will be suspended again upon another outbreak or multiple players catching the virus.
3. Each game on the schedule would “take place” at the location on the original schedule.
4. All the innings played between the two teams in games played in the same host city would be put into a computer simulation.
   • For example, let us estimate that the Cubs and Cardinals have played approximately 15 times per season over the last 30 years.  That totals 450 games. The computer would select one half of one inning of the approximately 225 games from the home site.
   • The TV networks would have inventory and could televise all of the games. 
   • Nobody would be able to know the outcome of any game by looking it up online since you would only know which half inning was being televised at that point.
   • As the TV broadcast comes on the air, you might get an inning from a 1995 game from the Astroturf at the old Busch Stadium, or rainy 2018 game from the grass at new Busch Stadium.  You may get the chance to watch some of the strong Cardinals teams from 2006 or 2011, or you could see the World Series Cubs team from 2016.
   • You would see some really interesting matchups, as one Mark McGuire or Albert Pujols could be batting in one inning, while the dominant Cubs World Series winners would hit in the next (or maybe one of the less stellar Cubs entries).
   • As the season progressed, you would have no way to know which games/innings were going to be selected nor in what order.
   • It would add an interesting twist to watching and following the progress the season as fans sit at home.
   • It would give fans something to talk about and a season to follow.

To me, the attraction of this model, is that we would be watching actual competition, instead of seeing the results of a computer simulation.  You would see real pitches, real swings and the energy of real fans.  But instead of just watching the re-run of a classic game, mixing up the innings would keep viewers’ attention, thereby giving sponsors and TV networks, more value.

So, should we start the bidding for the media rights?

WOW.

That is truly the only word that came to mind watching Tiger’s win at Augusta.  It was an impressive performance, even if it didn’t require him to shoot a lights-out round as he watched his nearest competitors dump ball after ball into Rae’s Creek on #12.   We will leave out the editorial comments on their shot selections aimed at the far right of the bunker, instead of playing for the middle of that green with the tournament on the line�shocking mistakes for players that have been around long enough to know better.

As the accolades for Tiger poured in over the last few days (all well-deserved), it got me thinking about how unlikely it was.  Not Tiger’s performance, but the fact that so many people wanted to see him do well.  As a society, we often hear about the desire to see someone comeback from a past mistake. 

But the sidelines are littered with athletes, entertainers, coaches, media members and others whose mistake was one simple act or misstatement.  Most of them do not receive the same type of support.

We see millions of Americans who have been through the criminal justice system. Virtually none of them are given much support in their second chance efforts.

Why is that?  What distinguishes the cases in which a person is crucified for life for one small mistake, and another is seemingly easily forgiven for his transgressions? 

Addiction cannot be the answer because many of the individuals who are ex-communicated from college and pro sports teams were arguably facing the same types of addiction issues.

I do not claim to have the answers to this question, but I do find it fascinating.  I wonder how much more we could accomplish as a society if employers, schools, spouses, sports leagues and media companies would grant this same level of forgiveness and support to those in their midst who needed it.

So each time you hear someone cheering on Tiger, take a minute to think through your own life and see who could use that support from you!!

For any of you that have spent time in Israel, you know that sports are a big part of the culture.  One of the enduring themes has been Maccabi Tel Aviv competing in European Championship games using African-American players who were not able to get (or stay) in the NBA.

My friend David Goldstein from Toronto, wrote a book entitled Alley Oop to Aliyah: African American Hoopsters in the Holy Land.”  David is a long-time colleague from the Sports Lawyers Association and he spent many years researching and writing the book.

Listening to his presentation was extremely interesting, because he came at it not from the basketball perspective but from the cultural phenomenon that it represents.  David explained how his early interest in the story was driven by the passion his grandmother’s friends exhibited when talking about a Toronto Raptors player who had spent some time in Israel.  Their excitement when they heard David was from Toronto went beyond any reasonable relationship or rooting interesting in the local team.

According to David, over 800 players have made their way to Israel since the first known player Alcie Perry, who was a stalwart in Maccabi Tel Aviv’s 1977 European Championship, perhaps one of the most important sporting events in Israeli sports history.  As a side note, I was in 7^th grade and happened to be living in Israel at the time, and I can confirm the enormity of the event and the feverish passion that was exhibited around the country.

David shared stories about some of the favorite characters he interviewed for the book.  These stories included players that:

• Joined the Israeli army voluntarily. 
• Married Israeli women.
• Converted to Judaism.
• Raised children in Israel.
• Became Israeli citizens.
• Found less racism in Israel.
• Became spokespeople for Israel.
• Experienced anti-semitism by playing for an Israeli team.
• Celebrated Championships with an Israeli flag (instead of the team logo or flag).

The two events in Chicago were well attended and there was a lot of interest in his presentation.  I encourage you to bring David to your community for an event.  I think you will find him very engaging, empathetic and well-spoken, creating a lot of warmth and a positive experience for your organization.

For more information about David or Alley-Oop to Aliyah”, please email me at rkessel@sportsloop.com and I am happy to make the introduction.

As we see Tiger Woods lurking near the top of the leaderboard after the first day of the 2019 Masters, we hear a lot of people in the golf world (and beyond), talking about what a Tiger victory would mean to the golf world.  There can be no doubt about his drawing power and the TV ratings that he drives for any golf tournament in which he participates.  The energy and passion around the events go up tenfold when he competes.

Still, I have always argued that Tiger’s two biggest accomplishments have come outside of competition.

DRESS CODE

For almost the last 100 years, a collared shirt has been a mandate at virtually every golf club in the United States (and most other countries).  Try walking onto a private country club in a tank-top, t-shirt or anything other than a standard polo, and you will be rapidly escorted either back to your vehicle (to leave) or directly to the pro-shop (to purchase a new shirt).

Tiger changed that.  Almost single-handedly. I saw almost because we know that Nike had an enormous influence in that marketing play, but even Nike would not have had the power to institute that change, but for Tiger’s power.

The fact that Tiger could show up wearing a mock-turtleneck shirt at one golf tournament and that the entire golf industry would be flipped upside-down is a testament to that power. 

I doubt that you can think of any athlete who created such a large change.  Even Michael Jordan’s famed Air Jordan brand did not have that same influence.  High-tops were a strong fashion before and while he took them to an entirely new level, it was still essentially just a redesign of an existing product.

On the chart of golf fashion, this was a true seismic change.

AFFAIRS

Tiger’s other accomplishment” is equally astounding, though less exemplary.  While he was roaming the globe with all of his golf success, Tiger was apparently sneaking around behind his wife’s back.  This is hardly noteworthy, since it occurs on a daily basis. 

What makes his story different is not that he had a beautiful wife and young children.

The remarkable element of his story is that Tiger was able to keep over 100 women quiet.  His cheating remained hidden from social media, from leaks from his agency, leaks from his friends and leaks from the women he was keeping time with.

In a world where any action, inaction or mis-deed goes viral within seconds, it is truly hard to fathom how Tiger was able to keep a lid on this story for so long.  Having the ability to keep that many women happy (or at minimum, not angry”) is a huge accomplishment.

For better or for worse.

It should be an interesting weekend at Augusta.  But in my view, even a Tiger win will no eclipse either of these accomplishments.

Held the night before the official NFLPA’s annual required training, Inside the League sponsored its annual gathering of agents at the NFL Combine.  The meeting was led by long time agent Peter Schaffer who set a strong leadership tone for the conversation.  The agent community has long been splintered into factions, and the divides typically look like this:

1. Large agencies;
2. Successful smaller agencies;
3. The solo guys;
4. The dabblers;
5. New agents.

The challenge has been to bring these groups together, because while they compete against each other, the only way to protect the value of the agent and to fight against the NFLPA’s attempts to reduce compensation and restrict activities, is for the agents to work together. The larger agencies usually do not want to be involved with the efforts to reform the system, since they are the ones that usually have the resources to spend the money on recruiting and servicing clients that the other groups cannot afford.  So efforts to restrict any of those tactics run counter to their professional objectives.

Schaffer sought a unifying environment as he led the conversation into the following areas:

• Inducements
• Transparency
• Payments to players over 52 weeks
• Strike preparation
• Agent Association
• New leagues

INDUCEMENTS�One of the biggest issues for anyone trying to break into the agent business is how to compete with the large inducements given to players coming out of college.  One of my ongoing criticisms of the NFLPA has been its fictional attempts to enforce its regulations.  Though it purports to ban inducements” the NFLPA has repeatedly refused to consider marketing advances, training payments, living expenses and many other items paid by the agent as inducements.  The NFLPA says that anything paid after the player signs is not an inducement, essentially meaning that an agent can show you what he paid for other players last year, and that does not constitute an inducement.  In any other body of law, that would clearly be held as an inducement.  Schaffer quoted research which showed him that the average agent netted less than $5500 per client, a number that is far lower than most new prospective agents expect when they enter the business.  Under this business model, he said that nobody is making money.” This number is likely skewed up based on the successful agencies, meaning that for most new agents, this is not a viable business, a viewpoint reiterated by many solo agents and those trying to break into the business.  The $15,000 training bills along with six figure marketing guarantees are significant barrier to entry for most agents.

TRANSPARENCY�One frustration for agents (and many others) has been the lack of transparency in this process.  The addendum’s that agents ask players to sign have never been released and so there is no way to tell if the agent (or player) is being truthful in their characterization of the relationship.  Without transparency, many players (and their families) are not comparing apples to apples in the selection of their agent.  Schaffer would like to see the addendum’s standardized and allow the agents access to a database that shows what the players are being offered and promised.

PAYMENTS TO PLAYERS OVER 52 WEEKS�An ongoing challenge for NFL players (and athletes in many other sports) is their ability to manage their finances.  The NFL pays the players on a 17 week schedule.  This means that they have seemingly huge amounts of money in every paycheck.  This distorts the reality that the money they are paid needs to last an entire year.  While the amount that they are paid is enormous in any normal context, the players are typically inexperienced in managing money and fail to take into account some critical elements: 1) They need to pay taxes; 2) They need to make the money last an entire year; and 3) They are likely to have VERY short careers.  Some agents believe that spreading the payments of 52 weeks will help with those issues.  This is one of the few areas where I disagree with the push of agent group. My advice to my clients is ALWAYS get the money as early as possible. I would much rather have the money in my hands than in the hands of another party.  Good planning and financial management can help alleviate the other issues for the players.

STRIKE PREPARATION— Everyone in the football world is anticipating a strike when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in 2020.  It is hard to imagine how any extension will be reached in advance of that time.  So what this means, is that the players may face a lockout and may need to be prepared for a work stoppage.  The agents are recommending that the players start putting away 10% of the money from each game check, 20% of the playoff money and 50% of performance bonuses so that they have the funds to endure a lockout.  Negotiating from a position of strength is always preferable and by making sure the players are not desperate to take any deal, it will be give the Union some backing in the negotiations.

AGENT ASSOCIATION�A long overdue initiative, an agent association will ultimately help the players as well.  This association will give the agents some leverage with the NFLPA and possibly even with the NFL.  There are a multitude of issues that the agents face regularly that are dismissed completely by the NFLPA as either unimportant at all or not relevant for the power agents that the NFLPA has long catered to.  The room was surprisingly unified in the desire to create an agents association and many agents expressed their willingness to pay a fee that would be required.  One important note in this area was raised by longtime agent Jack Bechta, as he strongly cautioned the agents against litigating with the NFLPA.  Bechta’s fear was that it would ultimately cost their own client’s money and that given the expense it would be unlikely to produce any meaningful changes.

NEW LEAGUES�The event was Co-Sponsored by the XFL, and former Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley spoke to the agent group. It was interesting to hear some of the input the XFL has taken from the agents, most notably, that the XFL will have the agents paid directly by the league.  This is a significant change since one continual battle for many agents is to have their players pay their fees and expenses.  The NFLPA’s refusal to allow this payment structure is the cause of many fee disputes, because it is easier for the player to just not pay” without any good reason. 

It was refreshing to see so many agents addressing the issues that have plagued the agent community since I was first in the business in 2000.  Sadly, the issues really have not changed and the agents have never pulled themselves together.  Prior attempts to create an association have failed, frequently because the individual leading the charge did not have enough respect in the agent community.

Schaffer seems to have that respect and seems to be marshalling the resources that are needed to make an agent association a reality.  It will be interesting to see how the NFLPA reacts at Friday’s meeting and over the next several months.

The one noticeable absence at this meeting was the large agencies.  There did not seem to be any representation from CAA, Athletes First, or Rosenhaus Sports, three of the biggest agencies.

An agents association would ultimately serve the players better as well, a fact which seems to escape the notice of the NFLPA.

One of the things that has always mystified me on the concussion front is how the NFLPA has been virtually ignored.  As the entity charged with representing the players and protecting their health and safety, the NFLPA has essentially been given a free pass on the issue.

Currently, there are lawsuits pending against the NFL, Pop Warner, the NCAA and many other entities.  The basic allegations in each complaint rely on the fact that the sponsoring organization had a duty to the athletes and failed to protect them, and in many cases, hid the dangers of concussions away from them.

The NFL in particular has been accused of downplaying the dangers of concussions and using a committee of highly unqualified individuals to make the decisions for the league.  The problem the league faces is that, until recently, their actions are quite clearly against the weight of medical science.  Their Head, Neck and Spine committee consisted of people who were not neurologists and did not have the credentials to advise on these issues, much less lead the way.

But the question I don’t see anyone asking is Where was the NFLPA while this fiasco was going on.”  It is reasonable to be in the camp of believing that the NFL acted inappropriately and that the league hid dangers and used unqualified people to distort the research (or at minimum, minimize the impact of the research).  Yet I see no groups taking on the NFLPA or even questioning where their leadership was while the concussion crisis started to take shape. 

The group in the best position to take on the powerhouse of the NFL is the NFLPA.  The players alone have little power.  The agents have virtually no power on these issues. Long time agent Leigh Steinberg has said that he was presenting concussion issues to the league in the early 1990’s with no success.

So while the NFLPA may not have been in a position to take the lead role, surely it had the obligation and the right to question how the NFL examined this issue. It seems to me that this was a failure of leadership on the part of the NFLPA and the NFLPA may have been more concerned with other financial issues for the players and with long term health benefits, both worthwhile causes.  You may read this and say, hey, Roy Kessel, who are you to question the NFLPA.  Having been certified as an NFL Contract Advisor (i.e. agent), and having attended numerous NFLPA seminars, Sports Lawyers Association Seminars and having taught at Northwestern, this is an issue that I have examined on many occasions.

While I agree that the NFLPA should not have primary liability on this issue, I do not see how the media has failed to question the union as it relates to their actions.  I have asked this question to former players, media members and even many involved in the concussion” industry.  I am still waiting for an answer.  If you have one, I would love to hear it below.

Super Bowl weeks are always a very hectic time.  If you are associated with the business of sports, there are more events than you could possibly have time to attend in that period of time.  As you read through this summary, you will see the links embedded to the coverage of the various events provided by the Sports Philanthropy Network.

This past week in Atlanta, I was fortunate to participate in a whole variety of events giving me the opportunity to interact with a wide array of individuals from all across the country.

The weekend prior to the game, I was able to attend the NFL Experience at the Georgia World Congress with Kayla Bradham, who is joining the Sports Philanthropy Network as the VP of Community Relations.  We had the opportunity to go through the exhibits and explore the venue in a much less crowded environment than you would see later in the week.  One of the highlights was getting the chance to meet some of the team from RISE, Stephen Ross’ initiative getting its acronym from Ross Initiative for Sports Equality.  As the owner of the Miami Dolphins, Ross has put his name on many things, including the University of Michigan Business School, but this is one that could make an every longer lasting impact.

The first couple days of the week are quieter as the schedule ramps up in anticipation of the crowds heading into the weekend.  It was comical as the City of Atlanta prepared itself for a winter storm.”  The whole city was on high alert mode on Monday as it prepared for horrific conditions on Tuesday.  The TV weather broadcasts warned everyone of impending doom.  Schools were cancelled by Monday afternoon.  The end result?  A day with temperatures in the high 30’s and low 40’s.  A sunny afternoon.  Even the health club I managed to use to squeeze in a few workouts was telling me the facility might close because the weather could change.”

One of the most interesting parts of the week was the ability to get press credentials which gave me access to many of the official NFL events and the various summits and educational seminars around time.  It gave me some great insight into how the media work and the access they receive to all parts of the Super Bowl compound.

• WEDNESDAY: From my end, the week got kick started with a Women’s Empowerment Summit hosted by GladiatHers. Terrific messages from many powerful women. Well over 100 women attended and there were a surprising number of men also supporting the vision of GladiatHers.
• WEDNESDAY: From there, it was a quick run over to the Crucial Catch event held at the American Cancer Society HQ. A strong turnout of NFL representatives, team mascots, cheerleaders and former players led the way as the stations were set up to caution about various cancer risk factors and provide prevention suggestions.
• WEDNESDAY: The GladiatHers evening panel had some very frank conversations from leading women in the Atlanta sports community.
• THURSDAY: The Most Valuable Philanthropist event hosted by Champions for Philanthropy at the amazing venue called The Estate.” Honoring some terrific players who have made a great impact in their community, this event really set a strong standard for other philanthropic events to follow.
• THURSDAY: RISE held their Town Hall Meeting at the King Center with a star-studded and impressive lineup taking the stage to push for social justice and significant reforms in the criminal justice system.
• THURSDAY: Very impressive event at the Porsche Experience, sponsored by AWIS (Atlanta Women in Sports). A terrific turnout and many great women leaders took the stage to accept their awards and talk about their motivations and the impact they desired to make.
• FRIDAY: The NFL Man of the Year Community event was held at the Boys and Girls Club. Attended by almost all of the Man of the Year nominees, this event featured Roger Goodell working the shovel and wheelbarrow and setting the lead example of hard work.
• FRIDAY: George Washington University’s Sports Philanthropy program hosted a networking Happy Hour for the many professionals in town for the Super Bowl and received a strong turnout of people making their career in the sports philanthropy space.
• FRIDAY: A special treat was an invitation to dinner by NFL Hall of Fame LB Rickey Jackson and getting the opportunity speak to him and Eric Dickerson during a late dinner.
• SATURDAY: Leigh Steinberg, Nicole Fisher and the Brain Treatment Foundation hosted a Brain Health Summit as a prelude to Leigh Steinberg’s annual party. The Summit had an insightful panel discussion that examined the difficulties of addressing the concussion problems on a practical level.
• SATURDAY: Leigh Steinberg’s party hosted over 2000 people crammed into the venue and the highlight was Patrick Mahomes taking home some of the awards and showing off his strong presence and command of the audience. Later that night, he took home the Player of the Year.

Unfortunately, I did not get to stay for the game.  Aside from the ticket prices running well over $2,000, it was time to get back home after the two week trip for the Senior Bowl and the Super Bowl.

One thing that struck me as I walked around the streets of Atlanta during the week, was the dichotomy exhibited by homeless individuals asking for food or money, while literally a few yards away, party goers are entering into parties that whose tickets ranged in price from $200 to $1000+.   I haven’t seen any reports on the total amount spent on parties during the week, but you can bet it is a large number.

SMT Golf held a terrific promotional presentation at Ruffled Feathers Golf Club in Lemont, Illinois, on February 15, 2019.  Mike Tait does a terrific job of coming up with creative fundraising games and programs to help the organizations raise money for their particular causes. 

SMT runs over 300 events per year and Mike continues to come up with new ways to help the organizations secure more participation and make the events more fun for the golfers.

If you take a look at the specific games SMT puts together, you see that the organization can have a wide array of choices for their population. 

Over 50 event planners attended and were treated to a first-class lunch by Ruffled Feathers as they put out a great spread to showcase their event hosting capabilities.  Ruffled Feathers does a first class job at their events and you could easily see why it is a premier facility in the Chicago area.

If you are looking for innovative ideas for your golf event, SMT might have the answers.  While some may find the games gimmicky, only you can determine if they are a good fit for your golfing audience.  For your company outings and Chamber of Commerce type of events, I think their games fit pretty well.

However, if you host an event with a more serious contingent of golfers, their competitive spirit is unlikely to want to skip” playing several of the holes, even if the games provide the golfers with an artificially inflated scoring.

Most importantly, it is great to see golf season coming around the corner.  Winter has already been too long and we are anticipating even more snow ahead this coming week.

It is always interesting to see the differing personalities of the players at the Senior Bowl.  At tonight’s opening event hosted by the Mobile Chamber of Commerce, these distinctions were easy to see. Some guys hopped up on the stage and danced with the band, while others stood in the back corner and spent most of their time on their phones.  Some walked thru the room talking to Mobile’s nobility, while other gathered with their new teammates and stood around in groups of players unless they were asked for a photo or an autograph.

But perhaps this picture best demonstrates the attitudes of the players.  Two guys sitting on their phones texting or playing games, while the other two are spending their time studying their new assignments for the upcoming week of practice.

For those that have never been here, it is hard to understand the pressure cooker environment that Mobile represents for the players.  While it may not be quite as bad as the NFL Combine, they are on display 24/7 and every move is being watched and scrutinized by someone.  The challenge for the players is that they often can’t tell who is watching them. In the frenzy that is the lobby of the Renaissance Hotel, they truly have no idea who most of the people are as they walk through, unless it is a coach, scout or media member that they have already dealt with.  

The practices the next three days go a long way to determining the rise and fall in their draft stocks.  As you get the chance to meet most of these kids, you can see that this represents a long-time dream of playing in the NFL.