Fans have been clamoring for a college football playoff for years.  The BCS did a poor job of giving teams a chance at a true national championship.  The 4-team playoff has not done much better.  It has routinely excluded conference champions, excluded many really good football teams, and ultimately has become system that employs beauty pagent criteria to get access.  If you are not a blue-blood program without any flaws, you have no chance to win it on the field.  Lose an early game…you are out.  Suffer a critical injury at a core position, you might be left out even if you are playing amazing football by the end of the season.

Ultimately, in the current system, teams outside of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are routinely left out despite an incredible season.  The effects of this can be seen around the country as teams with a realistic playoff aspiration are seeing significant drop offs in fan interest after they suffer a first loss, and recognize they have zero chance with two losses.

Look at these five reasons to expand to 8 teams, you will see how important this move will be for college football.

1. Schedules are set too far in advance.
2. Conference Championships really only thing a team controls year-to-year.
3. Injuries can keep out deserving teams.
4. Flukely plays and/or bad officiating could keep a team out.
5. Home Field is an enormous benefit.
6. More teams in the running in November.
7. Criteria are inconsistently applied

1. Schedules are set too far in advance.

Non-Conference games played in 2019 were likely scheduled sometime between 2006 and 2012.  Are the power programs today the same as they were in those years?  Can you predict how good a Power 5 team will be 7 to 13 years (or more) in advance.  Judging a program’s success by the strength of that Non-Conference schedule makes little logical sense, because it is not like the school could predict the “strength” at the time it was schedule.

• Conference Championships really only thing a team controls year-to-year.

The only item in the control of a team each year is to win its games.  Ultimately, for every team, in every conference, one of their main goals each season is to win their conference.  That accomplishment alone should be sufficient to get a Power 5 team into the CFP.  The beauty pagent conversations of the CPF Committee (which we discuss further below) should not be allowed to override a conference championship.

• Injuries can keep out deserving teams.

Take a look at Tua’s recent injury.  If Alabama had lost a close game which was missed by their star QB, shouldn’t they still have an opportunity to be considered if he was healthy come playoff time? Under the current format, there would be little chance to that to occur.

• Flukey plays and/or bad officiating could keep a team out.

Do we really want a team left out of the CFP with a bad call or a flukey play?  Yes, I recognize that this could occur at any level, no matter how many teams we put into the CFP.  However, an expansion to 8 teams would give an aggrieved team the opportunity to overcome a hiccup, something that does not exist in the current format.

• Home Field is an enormous benefit.

A common complaint against expanding the playoff, is that it would make games less meaningful.  To the contrary, I think it would make the games MORE meaningful.  Teams would be battling for home field in the Quarterfinals all the way through the conference championship games.  We have seen situations where it has been clear that a team may be in the CFP, even with a loss in the championship (or conversely, eliminated even with a close loss).  The distinction between playing at home or traveling across the country to another power school would keep the stakes high.

• More teams in the running in November.

A team with two losses currently has no chance to get into the CFP.  For some of the reasons set forth above, you can see that could unfairly penalize a team.  If you look at the Top 25 right now, there are probably a dozen teams who could reasonably have a chance to make an 8 team playoff that would have zero chance to make a 4 team playoff.  As currently situated today, there are really only about 8 teams with a chance:  Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Utah and Oklahoma.  You might be able to make arguments for a few others, but it would take a lot of upsets. In an 8 team playoff, you would still see a path to the playoff for: Baylor, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Notre Dame and Auburn.  This basically doubles the pool of candidates and sets up critical games down the stretch as we head to rivalry week.  The importance of this breadth and diversity cannot be overstated since it will allow many programs to see a viable route to the program even when they understand that likelihood of finishing in the Top 4 is not a realistic goal.

• Conference Championship games frequently lack energy

So now let’s look at the actual selection process.  My proposal is for 8 teams, rewarding all 5 Power Conference Champions with a bid.  This ensures that all Conference Championships mean something.  On the rare occasion that a truly “undeserving” team wins the championship, so what? They become an underdog and a darling and maybe they make a run!  The Group of 5 teams would have a spot reserved for them as long as the highest ranked team in that group is in the Top 12 (or Top 15).  I don’t think anyone minds seeing a Central Florida take a spot in the tournament, but nobody wants to see a three loss Group of 5 team ranked 20^th or worse taking up a valuable spot.

• Criteria are inconsistently applied.

When you look at the way the committee approaches the conversation, you essentially see three distinct conversations:

• Body of Work—Your body of work can only be as good as your schedule.  So these all relate to each other, but sometimes a school just wins and wins and wins, but may not look as impressive.  Does that team deserved to be excluded because they do not blow out every opponent?  Put them on the field and they will just win games…and they should get that chance.

• Best Win—another function of the schedule. Not only your schedule, but the schedule of an opponent.  Beat a really good team who has beaten nobody else and you will get little credit, no matter how good that team is.  Beat a mediocre team that has a win over another mediocre team  (i.e. overrated in preseason polls) and you will jump up the charts.

• Worst Loss—If multiple teams have one loss, is the primary consideration who they lost to?  Or who else they have beaten?  This year, Georgia has a terrible, home loss to South Carolina.   Alabama has a close home loss to LSU.  Georgia’s loss is clearly worse, but they are rated higher due to wins over Florida, Notre Dame and Auburn.  The committee flip flops every year on how they apply this criteria.

• Strength of Schedule—Subject to the same problem noted above based on how far the games are scheduled in advance.

Ultimately, the expansion to 8 will be great for college football.  What used to be the best college sports season out there, has now largely been reduced to watching which team between Alabama, Ohio State or Clemson can run up the score the highest.  That is not a sustainable model.

The critique of college football coaches (really, all football coaches) has become worse in recent years. Alabama fans have apparently become even more unreasonable given Nick Saban’s historic success.  But if you look more closely, are they really different from any other group of fans.

Listening to a sport talk radio show after a college or NFL loses can be highly entertaining.  The entire program is falling apart, the head coach needs to go, the backup QB is better than the starter, both coordinators are atrocious and the recruiting has dropped off. 

It seems that the Twitter age has made fans even more unreasonable and has given them an easy and widely distributed platform to voice their anger/frustration/knowledge. 

The intensity of every game and the importance in the standings has made each week a do-or-die mentality for the fans.  Patience is not an option.  Contentment with mediocre results is not an option.  Lose a game and the “Coach must go” tweets start, regardless of how well the team has done in the past.    You might expect to see that in schools that are struggling to breakthrough to the next level and feel that they just lost their opportunity due to a “bad” or “disappointing” loss. 

The quick trigger finger has not served many organizations well.  Look at how frequently Nebraska has changed coaches since it ran off Bo Pelini wih a winning record.  9-3 was not good enough.  You would think that winning 5 Nationals Championships would buy you a little bit of leeway, but as soon as Alabama lost a tight home game to LSU, the calls for his replacement started.  Sentiments like “too old”, “the game has passed him by” or “he is not interested” littered the Twitterverse.

Be careful what you wish you Bama fans. You might not remember the lean years (i.e. Pre-Saban) where the Tide were little more than an afterthought to college football’s elite.  Historically, the most successful programs have had a lot of stability at the top.  Once you starting changing, it takes a new coach 2 to 3 years to truly get everything the way that they want it.  Most schools don’t have that patience.

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TOP STORIES THAT I WAS WATCHING THIS WEEK

NCAA statement on compensation for Name, Image and Likeness–The NCAA came out this week and said that they were going to start to examine how to allow athletes to receive compensation for their Name, Image and Likeness.  However, if you read the NCAA’s actual statement about the situation, you will see that it is truly full of gaping holes.  Take a read here as I outline some of the problems with the way that NCAA is going about this process.

LEVEL FIELD OR FREE MARKET—After you read the article above, take a read through this analysis about the only two options that are really left for college sports: 1) A level playing field; or 2) A free market system.  Are you ready for these changes? Well, it doesn’t matter because you will have to choose a side! You will see the arguments for each side and then we would love to see you vote which side you would take.

ARENA FOOTBALL—The news that the Arena Football League was going out of business indicates the second professional football league to fold this year, after the AAFL.  The trouble is that the minor league sports are a very difficult business model and if they cannot get secure financial backing as well as solid TV contracts, they are going struggle.  The XFL is picking up momentum as it heads towards its kickoff and it is getting more coverage in the mainstream media and talk radio circuits.

IHSA REFUSAL TO ALLOW CPS SCHOOLS TO PARTICIPATE IN STATE PLAYOFFS—The lengthy Chicago Public Schools teachers strike had many unintended consequences, not the least of which was the fact that the Illinois High School Association decided that it would not allow the CPS schools to compete in state playoffs for the fall sports.  I am still really not clear what the rationale was for that position, but it seems to me that the kids who have worked so hard in their sports all season long should not be forced to miss the playoffs.  I am not weighing in on the right decision regarding the now settled strike, but punishing the kids seems to be in nobody’s best interest.  Kudos the judge that finally allowed the students to compete.

WORLD SERIES—Truly an amazing series. It is unbelievable that the road team won all 7 games.   The Nationals managed to pull it out and won an amazing number of games with clutch hits.  Brewers fans are probably still lamenting the one game playoff they lost when they appeared to have the game in hand and the Nationals rallied with clutch hits.  To me, one of the most disturbing calls was the interference at first base, but thankfully it was made little difference in the game so it can just be relegated to a footnote.

AXIOS—They hosted an event on Wednesday related to criminal justice reform.  A star-studded lineup came through including governor JB Pritzker.  A lot of interesting issues were addressed and you can read more of the details here.  The criminal justice reform issues continue to lag and the slow pace of change is detrimentally impacting a lot of families.

Chicago Sports Commission—Billed at “Telling Chicago’s Story”, the panel included longtime Chicago media members Dave Revsine (Big Ten Network), Peggy Kusinski, Dave Eanet (Northwestern Sports) and Lou Canellis. The panel was moderated Tarah Cooper Wright who is currently in the role of CEO and Partner of the Rise Strategy Group.  She put some very interesting questions and each panelist got the opportunity to tell some of their favorite stories.

AXELSON—The Axelson Center for Non-Profit Management put together a nice event on Tuesday.  They host periodic events around the Chicago area aimed at improving the work of non-profit organizations.  Take a full read here for more details about Tuesday’s event.

JEFFREY EPSTEIN–The story coming out this week about Jeffrey Epstein’s death potentially not being suicide could be the least surprising story of the year.  With all of the information that he had about a lot of powerful people, someone getting to him was a virtual guarantee. The complaints of the Federal Bureau of Prisons aside, you have to wonder how much help someone had to get to him.

ENTREPRENEURS—One of the things I really enjoy is sitting down with entrepreneurs and non-profits and seeing how I can help them improve their operations or take a new product/service to market. I had a chance to sit down with some very interesting organizations and companies this past week and look forward to sharing more details with you over the coming month.

UPCOMING EVENTS

• AMERICAN ISRAEL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE—LEADERSHIP AWARD DINNER, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2019.   Here is a link to the full information. I hope you can join us.  If you are interested in coming as my guest, please send me an email ASAP so that we can get you on the list.  This great organization builds relationships between businesses in Israel and the United States.
• PROJECT PLAY, WESTERN NEW YORK—I have been honored to be invited to present to a group of non-profits that are funding by Project Play of Western New York on November 16, 2019.  These organizations do a lot of interesting work in their respective communities and I am excited to share with them a variety of ways to help them build capacity and sustainability in their operations.

HUMOR FOR THE WEEK

MOTIVATION FOR THE WEEK

Inadvertent Side-effect of NCAA Redshirting Rule.           People rarely feel that the NCAA has an athlete’s best interests in mind. Yet, when the 4 game participation rule was passed last year for football, it seemed like a good way to balance the interests of the players and the universities by allowing athletes to get a bit of experience without losing an entire year of eligibility.  Unfortunately, from what you are seeing this year, the inadvertent side effects appear to be reaching epidemic proportions.  In the past few weeks, we have had players at Houston and players at Rutgers decide to sit out starting in the middle of the season.  Players are deciding after a “poor” start to the season, a mid-season coaching change or a potential coaching change, that they should “stop” playing until the following year so as not to “waste” a year of eligibility.  This leaves the team and interim coaches in a really difficult situation where players they were relying on now have the ability to decide not to be part of the team.  I am sure that this problem will only grow and ultimately coaches and universities will have to figure out a reasonable (and legal) way to prevent this from happening in the future.  UPDATE OCTOBER 8, 2019: NOW EVEN SPORTS ILLUSTRATED IS COVERING THIS SAME ISSUE!!