NEW MODEL FOR BASEBALL SEASON SIMULATION
While many computer and statistical models are used to simulate season schedules, one of the draw backs of those simulations is the fact that fans cannot really watch or participate in the same way.
As we all sit at home through this COVID-19 crisis, many sports fans would love to have the distraction of watching games that were part of an actual season of competition. So, in the spirit of fun and enjoy the progress of a season, let us unveil the plan:
- The regularly scheduled MLB season would be played according to the existing schedule.
- No new physical games would be played, in the interests of social distancing and safety.
- Yes, we understand that everyone would prefer games and I do believe all professional leagues will try to reinstate competition without fans. Unfortunately, I also believe that will be suspended again upon another outbreak or multiple players catching the virus.
- Each game on the schedule would “take place” at the location on the original schedule.
- All the innings played between the two teams in games played in the same host city would be put into a computer simulation.
- For example, let us estimate that the Cubs and Cardinals have played approximately 15 times per season over the last 30 years. That totals 450 games. The computer would select one half of one inning of the approximately 225 games from the home site.
- The TV networks would have inventory and could televise all of the games.
- Nobody would be able to know the outcome of any game by looking it up online since you would only know which half inning was being televised at that point.
- As the TV broadcast comes on the air, you might get an inning from a 1995 game from the Astroturf at the old Busch Stadium, or rainy 2018 game from the grass at new Busch Stadium. You may get the chance to watch some of the strong Cardinals teams from 2006 or 2011, or you could see the World Series Cubs team from 2016.
- You would see some really interesting matchups, as one Mark McGuire or Albert Pujols could be batting in one inning, while the dominant Cubs World Series winners would hit in the next (or maybe one of the less stellar Cubs entries).
- As the season progressed, you would have no way to know which games/innings were going to be selected nor in what order.
- It would add an interesting twist to watching and following the progress the season as fans sit at home.
- It would give fans something to talk about and a season to follow.
To me, the attraction of this model, is that we would be watching actual competition, instead of seeing the results of a computer simulation. You would see real pitches, real swings and the energy of real fans. But instead of just watching the re-run of a classic game, mixing up the innings would keep viewers’ attention, thereby giving sponsors and TV networks, more value.
So, should we start the bidding for the media rights?